GPT Prediction: AI shows up everywhere except in productivity statistics

Robert Solow, an economist, said in 1987 that computers show up everywhere except for the productivity statistics. It took a good two decades at the time for this to fundamentally change.

I predict the same “Solow Paradox” will apply to AI and its newest incarnation LLMs (of which GPT is a variant). Over the next few years a lot will happen in terms of adoption that will not show up positively in productivity statistics (in some cases it will actually show up negatively… 😉). 

The difference will be that gains will start to show up at the end of a single decade of adoption instead of two.

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GPT Prediction: Fat Finger Event

In the finance industry a fat finger event describes a typo with consequences. A few years ago, a Deutsche Bank trader mistakenly transferred 6 billion.

Prediction: This is exactly what will happen with GPT as well. Actually, it will happen with system like Github Copilot. Some programmer isn’t paying attention, doesn’t check the code fragment in which – can also happen GPT – the wrong variable is in it and the live system executes the equivalent of a fat finger..

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The Google Moment

With the release of ChatGPT, a wide audience has become aware of what AI can do today.

I can remember when we started using the early versions of Google for the first time in 1997/8, we knew: That was it for AltaVista & Co.

The advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) of which GPT is one are the same: a moment when the future will be different from the past.

2022 was truly a turning point year.

PS: We as citizens should regulate AI quickly and comprehensively as I suggested for some time now. I compare it to an airplane: it’s only safe because it’s strictly regulated. We should apply the same logic to AI.

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Unjustified Inflation

Inflation is a nuisance and yet an opportunity for some. However, it is more of a devilish opportunity: inflation is caused by profiteering.

It is caused when companies or individuals increase prices for their own benefit instead of reflecting changes in supply and demand. One such case might be the Coop carrot salad.

Until last autumn it cost 2.80 CHF. Since the New Year, the same salad has cost CHF 2.95. That is a price increase of 5.3% and well above the general inflation rate of 3% here in Switzerland… Coop, can you explain that above?

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2023 – a linear year

Welcome to a new year!

Welcome to a linear year.

2022 was truly extraordinary. Some attribute to it the character of a turning point in time. Like 9/11 (2001) or the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989), February 24th was a decisive event.

The year 2023 will be different. It’s about digesting the changes that have been initiated. It will be a linear year. That doesn’t mean that the changes won’t be substantial, but they have started in recent years. For example:

Putin’s misguided attack on Ukraine will destroy Russia itself. The country will show dissolution tendencies. Hundreds of thousands of young brutalized men pouring back into the regions with no prospects for the future will become the straw that will break the camel’s back. We will see a year of government change. And it won’t be easy (Nukes anyone…).

Ukraine will win. And thus continue the process of tectonic (positive) change in Europe that was initiated last year.

In America, TFG’s Fizzle Out will continue. He will be charged several times and maybe convicted and in the end nobody from his base will care anymore. Republicans will continue on their chosen path of denial of reality. Lying, deception and demagogy as trademarks. The elected MP Santos, whose entire CV is a fabrication, is a symbol of this.

It was once said that the quickest way from a billionaire to a millionaire was to buy an airline. Musk will show us that this can also be done with tech. Tech in general will continue down the path of levelling. Mostly self-inflicted – just hubris – partly also due to legislation (especially here in Europe).

Overall a good development: all the autocrats and autocrat-lovers (Yes, Roger, I mean you…), right-wing extremists and conspiracy theorists are taught a lesson. TFG gone, Bolsonaro voted out, Marine defeated, Brexit a catastrophe and now Russia and China severely cut back. These folks will not learn it and will continue to make noise, but for everyone else it will be apparent how hollow their arguments have always been. Democracy may be arduous and associated with trials and tribulations, but Crowd beats bossiness everywhere, maybe not on the first try but certainly on the second.

Speaking of the second attempt: China will experience an unexpected catastrophe in the next few weeks. The exit from the Zero-Covid policy is cruel for the people and a threat for the world for the second time in the short term (Covid mutations) but good in the long term because it ties the Chinese regime back.

As always, Europe will be scolded for many things this year and yet gain strength. There is even a chance that Switzerland and the EU will normalize their relationship.

The economy will go through rough times and still move forward, the turn towards a greener future continues to gain momentum. Inflation will come down, but not go away completely, and while energy prices have come down significantly, freight rates are a fraction of what they were a few months ago. Quite simply: there are oligopolies or oligopoly-like situations in more and more industries. In these industries, hard mark-ups are pushed through under the guise of inflation (while in many countries small incomes are denied inflation compensation).

In Great Britain, the Brexit disaster continues and many Brexiteers still do not want to admit it. Instead they will try to hold the Remoaners accountable – you have to fix Brexit now. Linear continuation of the nonsense of the last few years.

in our village we are (finally) consistently pursuing the path of sustainability. And we continue to develop our village cleverly in other ways too.

We in our company also experienced this “watershed” moment in 2022. We will now reap the fruits of this in this and the coming years.

A linear year….

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Trust and your Time

These are the 2 most valuable things a leader can give.

In your professional life, you’ll find that the longer a relationship lasts, the more you realise that the gifts or treats – things that can be purchased – are meaningless. What the people in your life want is meaningful time with you, even if it’s spent doing nothing but being in each other’s company.

Trust is also massively important – and it goes both ways.

Almost by design, as a leader, the people in your life trust you to guide them, keep them safe and be well provided for. Trust is the cornerstone of any and all relationships.

People often ask me why we, the Squirro team, have stuck together for so long, especially in this fast-paced startup world.

We’re simply fond of each other, so we give each other our time and our trust.

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Trust and your Time

Russland facing the Abyss

The last few days in Ukraine have shown that things often turn out differently than most people think. Same here. The Ukrainian army threw back the Russian invaders.

So we should think ahead as soon as possible: What happens if Russia collapses. The corrupt system around Putin will not survive defeat. Power in Russia is such that it converges on one person – Putin – and is supported by a delicate system of courtiers. The system is based on illusion, violence and corruption. And with that, it’s inherently unstable.

A defeat like the one now looming deprives the system of the resources it needs to continue to support it. It will collapse.

So we have a real challenge in Europe and America: How do we deal with the remnants of a system that still has thousands of nuclear weapons?

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Ukraine – Schweiz

Die Ukraine will schnell in die EU. Die Schweiz weiss nicht was sie will, einzig, dass sie in mitten von Europa ist und sich mit den Nachbaren arrangieren muss.

Hier der etwas andere Vorschlag: Wie wäre es wenn sich die Schweiz und die Ukraine gemeinsam auf diese Reise begeben würden? Da das grosse auf dem Weg nach Europa, hier das kleine Land mit jeder Menge Demokratieerfahrung und dem Finden von Kompromissen, (ausser mit der der EU), die auch das grosse Land und die EU brauchen werden.

Die Schweiz fokussiert ihre Drittstaatenhilfe auf die Ukraine (und über die vielen qualifizierten Flüchtlinge, die alle wohl länger hier bleiben werden als sie und wir meinen, gibts vielfältige neue Anknüpfungspunkte). Beide Länder verhandeln unabhängig mit der EU, stimmen sich aber eng ab. Die EU hätte plötzlich zwei formidable Verhandlungspartner gegenüber.

Wer jetzt sagt dass sei utopisch: Genau darum geht es. Um einen anderen Ansatz die Starre zu lösen.

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Gemeinderat

Vor einem guten Jahr hat mich der krude Abbruch der Verhandlungen mit der EU endgültig politisiert. Ich begann mich, bei der lokalen GLP zu engagieren. Im Spätherbst haben wir über eine Kandidatur für den Gemeinderat gesprochen.

Und angesagt, dass wir zwei GLP Gemeinderäte in Zollikon wollen. Letztes Wochenende hat es geklappt. Zusammen mit Sascha Ullmann bin ich in den Gemeinderat von Zollikon gewählt worden.

Merci liebe Zollikerinnen und Zolliker!

Ihr Vertrauen freut und ehrt mich. Ich werde es Ihnen in den nächsten vier Jahren erwidern und mich engagiert für Zollikon einsetzen! Für Themen wie das Beugi, die Verkehrssituation im Berg, der neue Medizinalcluster Lengg und viele weitere Themen mehr.

Grosse Politik beginnt im Kleinen. Und im Miteinander. Ich werde mich engagieren allen zuzuhören und gemeinsam einen Weg zu finden. Darauf freue ich mich.

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GLP Stand auf dem Wochenmarkt

Gestern haben wir auf dem Zolliker Wochenmarkt Specie Rara Tomatenstauden verteilt: Black Plum, die Gelbe aus Thun, und die Gezahnte.

Unser Stand. Im Hintergrund sind die leicht eifersüchtige FDP,
die hatten nämlich nur Samenpäckli zum verteilen 😉

Der Stand war Teil von unserem Wahlkampf für die Gemeinderats- und Behördenwahlen am kommenden Wochenende.

Mit vielen Mitbürgern und Mitbürgerinnen sind wir ins Gespräch gekommen. Viele haben bereits abgestimmt. Einige hatten auch direkte Anliegen: Wie geht es weiter mit dem Beugi, die oft gerade in der Bauabteilung langen Verfahren, welche Sanierungsoption wollen wir für das Fohrbach wählen, wie stellen wir sicher, dass Digitalisierung ältere Leute nicht ausschliesst.

In einer Wochen haben wir die Gelegenheit die Geschicke dafür in gute Hände zu legen: GLP wählen!

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