Welcome to a new year!
Welcome to a linear year.
2022 was truly extraordinary. Some attribute to it the character of a turning point in time. Like 9/11 (2001) or the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989), February 24th was a decisive event.
The year 2023 will be different. It’s about digesting the changes that have been initiated. It will be a linear year. That doesn’t mean that the changes won’t be substantial, but they have started in recent years. For example:
Putin’s misguided attack on Ukraine will destroy Russia itself. The country will show dissolution tendencies. Hundreds of thousands of young brutalized men pouring back into the regions with no prospects for the future will become the straw that will break the camel’s back. We will see a year of government change. And it won’t be easy (Nukes anyone…).
Ukraine will win. And thus continue the process of tectonic (positive) change in Europe that was initiated last year.
In America, TFG’s Fizzle Out will continue. He will be charged several times and maybe convicted and in the end nobody from his base will care anymore. Republicans will continue on their chosen path of denial of reality. Lying, deception and demagogy as trademarks. The elected MP Santos, whose entire CV is a fabrication, is a symbol of this.
It was once said that the quickest way from a billionaire to a millionaire was to buy an airline. Musk will show us that this can also be done with tech. Tech in general will continue down the path of levelling. Mostly self-inflicted – just hubris – partly also due to legislation (especially here in Europe).
Overall a good development: all the autocrats and autocrat-lovers (Yes, Roger, I mean you…), right-wing extremists and conspiracy theorists are taught a lesson. TFG gone, Bolsonaro voted out, Marine defeated, Brexit a catastrophe and now Russia and China severely cut back. These folks will not learn it and will continue to make noise, but for everyone else it will be apparent how hollow their arguments have always been. Democracy may be arduous and associated with trials and tribulations, but Crowd beats bossiness everywhere, maybe not on the first try but certainly on the second.
Speaking of the second attempt: China will experience an unexpected catastrophe in the next few weeks. The exit from the Zero-Covid policy is cruel for the people and a threat for the world for the second time in the short term (Covid mutations) but good in the long term because it ties the Chinese regime back.
As always, Europe will be scolded for many things this year and yet gain strength. There is even a chance that Switzerland and the EU will normalize their relationship.
The economy will go through rough times and still move forward, the turn towards a greener future continues to gain momentum. Inflation will come down, but not go away completely, and while energy prices have come down significantly, freight rates are a fraction of what they were a few months ago. Quite simply: there are oligopolies or oligopoly-like situations in more and more industries. In these industries, hard mark-ups are pushed through under the guise of inflation (while in many countries small incomes are denied inflation compensation).
In Great Britain, the Brexit disaster continues and many Brexiteers still do not want to admit it. Instead they will try to hold the Remoaners accountable – you have to fix Brexit now. Linear continuation of the nonsense of the last few years.
in our village we are (finally) consistently pursuing the path of sustainability. And we continue to develop our village cleverly in other ways too.
We in our company also experienced this “watershed” moment in 2022. We will now reap the fruits of this in this and the coming years.
A linear year….