Welcome to another year of transformative change and surprising stabilization and consolidation
Following the pattern of massive change in 2022 and the linear progression of these changes in 2023, the year 2024 is likely to be characterized by both transformative change and stabilization and consolidation. Here’s what this could entail:
On transformative change:
The U.S. political landscape: Post-Trump (yes he’ll be a man of the past in 2024; and that sooner than many think), the U.S. political scene moves towards a new era of leadership. The Republican Party, seeking to redefine itself, may embrace more moderate, reality-based policies, distancing itself from past extremist tendencies. Meanwhile, Democrats will face their own challenges in maintaining unity and addressing pressing domestic issues.
AI & the tech industry’s continued evolution: AI will continue its massive impact trajectory. I’ve seen enough of the economic impact to see entire industries turned upside down. A few things will go wrong, actually badly wrong. More things will go right. The tech industry, will hopefully see a shift towards more sustainable and socially responsible behavior, with a focus on data privacy and ethical AI. Europe’s stringent regulations start to influence global tech norms, emphasizing accountability and consumer protection.
China’s Global Role: China is a volatile and capricious actor. The economy is – if you look under the hood – in dire straits. Difficult to foresee on what level the act rational (and adventures across a straight may be ‘rational’ depending on the local situation in Beijing)
Russia’s Ongoing Challenges: The Ukraine conflict continues to weigh heavily on Russia (see below). The country, still grappling with internal strife, will seek to redefine its global position, but with a more pragmatic and internally-focused approach. This period of introspection might lead to unexpected reforms and a gradual shift away from aggressive foreign policies.
Stabilisation:
Consolidation of Changes: The changes initiated in 2022 and developed in 2023 will begin to bear fruit. This means that policies, innovations, and societal shifts started in the previous years will start to become more entrenched and widely accepted, leading to a more predictable and secure global environment.
Economic Adjustment: Economies around the world will continue to adapt to the new realities post-2022 changes. This will involve shifts in global trade patterns, a stronger focus on sustainable business practices, and the continued evolution of the job market in response to technological advancements. Though a bad economic set up is not excluded (see US repo and credit markets…)
Ukraine’s Rebuilding and European Integration: Following its victory, Ukraine embarks on a massive rebuilding effort, gaining significant support from European nations. This cooperation accelerates Ukraine’s integration into European frameworks, further solidifying the continent’s unity and resilience.
For us:
Our company saw an inflection point end 2022. Now we start to see the momentum of this change accelerating. 2024 marks a period of growth, innovation, and increased market presence, reflecting the successful navigation of recent challenges.
2024is a year where cautious optimism blends with practical action, setting the stage for a brighter future.
