Category Archives: PracticalEconomics

If AI is a bubble, the real question is: Who survives the bust

AI investment is starting to look like the railroad boom of the 1880s: massive buildout, intense competition, and a likely shakeout. The critical question is not whether the bubble pops, but which assets and operators endure when compute depreciates faster than it can pay for itself. Continue reading

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All things agentic: Are we (just) talking to ourselves?

A room full of builders can feel like proof that a technology has arrived, but homophily makes agreement cheap and common. The only signal that matters is whether people outside the room are willing to pay for what is being built. Continue reading

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Everything turns on its head. Often a good thing.

UBS is pushing back on tougher Swiss capital rules, yet those same rules are designed to prevent another taxpayer-backed rescue like Credit Suisse in 2023. The deeper pattern is broader than banking: regulation and consensus often flip from constraint to protection when conditions change. What looks like the obvious strategy in one era can become the risk in the next. Continue reading

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Grey, Corporate, or Start Again

A founder reflects on an interview moment that revealed an uncomfortable truth: moving into a corporate hierarchy can be a closed door for people shaped by startup operating systems. The piece argues that starting again is often less about skill or thrill and more about rejecting two respectable but suffocating exits. Continue reading

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Enterprise software won’t be built. It will be assembled

Enterprise software is shifting from multi-year builds to fast assembly for a growing class of judgment-heavy processes. The winning pattern pairs a vertical GenAI judgment layer with a horizontal workflow engine that routes work, logs decisions, and makes governance auditable. Continue reading

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Which AI Projects Survive When Token Subsidies End?

Many enterprise AI pilots look ROI-positive only because model pricing is still effectively subsidized. As token costs shift and agentic workflows multiply usage, the winners will be AI projects priced and managed around measurable outcomes. Stress-test your business case at 3× today’s rates and demand cost-per-outcome, not cost-per-seat. Continue reading

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The switch that crypto never had

A single U.S. directive forced Anthropic to abruptly disable its most capable models for users worldwide—without warning—by using export controls that treat access as an “export.” Unlike the cryptography wars, modern AI has a real control point: revocable access to centralized models and compute. The event signals a new operational risk for every company that builds on frontier AI: dependency that can be switched off is not an asset, it’s a liability. Continue reading

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AI might end up a controlled substance

Public sentiment is turning against AI—not over superintelligence fears, but over electricity and water consumption that show up on real utility bills. As compute becomes measurable and governable, regulation is shifting toward licensing and metering AI like a controlled substance. The winners won’t just have the best models—they’ll have accountability, auditability, and paperwork ready. Continue reading

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A Stress Diagram Cannot Be Scraped

Frontier models are becoming interchangeable; the differentiator is context. In industrial manufacturing, the real moat is connecting physical test signals, structured lab data, and cross-system workflow agents that turn measurements into decisions. The winners will pair AI capability with deep domain expertise and the operational wiring that models can’t replace. Continue reading

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Transformation is not a Job Title

The average Chief Digital Officer lasts 31 months. Shortest tenure in the C-suite, falling every year. 75% leave the company entirely when they go, not sideways into another role, out the door. Nearly half of CDOs themselves describe the position … Continue reading

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